Rise of the 45

In 1745, the Jacobite rebellion nearly succeeded in tearing Scotland out of the United Kingdom.

While the Jacobites’ main objectives were the restoration of the Stewart/Stuart monarchy (In the form of the dashing Bonnie Prince Charlie) and the reestablishment of Catholicism as the dominant faith, one of their other defining aims was ‘Prosperity For Scotland, And No Union’. The 1707 Act of Union with England and its empire had delivered none of its promises, and rebellion was the result.

After securing the support of many Highland clans, Bonnie Prince Charlie and his lieutenants surged south. They took Edinburgh, establishing a loose grip on Scotland, and surged into England looking to consolidate their gains.

They failed.

Two hundred and sixty-nine years later, Scotland held its referendum on independence.

The campaigns were fierce yet peaceful, the outcome was by no means secure as the SNP and Greens gathered support in all corners of the nation. Turnout was a historic and unprecedented 85%. On Referendum Night, the 18^th September 2014, immense numbers of Scots crowded around TV sets, squeezed into heaving pubs, roamed the streets draped in saltires or union flags, and awaited the result. The vote concluded: 55% No, 45% Yes.

Despair and disillusionment on the Yes side was prominent the next day. An oppressive fog enveloped Edinburgh, and a tense stand-off took place in Glasgow’s George Square. Alarming political news seeped out of the media: Alex Salmond resigned as first minister; UK party leaders (Mainly Ed Miliband) cast doubt over their pledges for further devolution; a Tory rebellion gave voice to anti-devolution MPs in Westminster determined to challenge decentralization. Out of this instability emerged a group called ‘We Are The 45%’, later simply dubbing themselves ‘The 45’. They have gathered a massive social media following and pledged to carry on the fight for independence.

Will they fail as well?

Thankfully, the historical comparisons between Bonnie Prince Charlie’s ‘45’ and Facebook’s ‘45’ are fairly weak, but the coincidental titling certainly caught my eye, and made me question where the new ‘45’ movement was heading.

I must admit, on post-referendum day I was feeling pretty awful – surprisingly so. The incredible buzz on the streets of Edinburgh the previous day had abruptly died, and suddenly over 1,600,000 Scots had plunged from a political high to devastating low. When I saw ‘We Are The 45%’ pop up on Facebook, I immediately pressed ‘like’.

It seemed like a sign of solidarity, a reassuring symbol that Scotland’s newly politicized population would not fizzle away.

Now, after a few of days of painful thought, I cannot help but feel concerned at the direction ‘The 45’ are taking. It seems that they are struggling to move on and accept the vote, and that makes me and many other Yes voters coming to terms with the No vote quite uncomfortable.

In his recent article, BBC correspondent Allan Little claimed that two Scotlands hademerged. At first, that was true, but now the situation is more complicated. There appear to be a number of different mindsets emerging as the referendum result soaks in:

The Diehard 45%

This branch will not let the idea of independence die. They have seized upon Alex Salmond’s suggestion that Scotland might not need another referendum if Yes support and No disillusionment continue to grow. They have replaced their bright blue ‘Yes’ twibbons and window signs with dark purple ‘45’ ones instead, and have planned future rallies. For them, the Yes campaign continues.

From The Independent

The Moderate 45%

This branch are still feeling the No result. It hurts to think about, and they will continue to be proud of their support for Yes Scotland, but they have accepted the referendum result and are willing to move on. Their sympathies lie with ‘The 45’, and they will display some support for the movement, but they believe that the only realistic routes now lie in devo-max or a distant future referendum.

From The Independent

The Reconciliators

This branch have abandoned their previous allegiance, whether to Yes or No, for the good of Scotland in the UK. They have acknowledged the democratic will of the people and believe that only a united, undivided Scotland can have a prosperous future. We need to move on from the referendum, they say, and embrace the new Scotland which has emerged from it without division. They broadly support devo-max or UK-wide federalism.

From The Daily Record

The Green Movement

The timing of the referendum was almost perfect for Green Yes supporters, what with the world-wide People’s Climate March (Including Edinburgh's contribution) taking place just three days after the vote. This allowed the political energy generated by the referendum to be channelled into something positive, and the Greens are building upon this momentum to push for greater activism and visibility in Scottish politics. Their attitude is generally Reconciliatory, or Moderate 45%. Since the referendum, membership of the Scottish Green Party has exploded (relative to previous years, and alongside the SNP and SSP). They will push for Scottish devo-max or UK federalism, with some members hoping another referendum is on the horizon.

The Regretful 55%

Some No voters viewed the mixed messages coming out of Westminster regarding devo-plus, devo-max and federalism, with great alarm, and started to regret crossing the No box. They are frightened by Nigel Farage’s talk that he’s sick of “TheScottish tail wagging the English dog” and by media attention shifting from Scotland to regional England. The Regretful 55% appear to be largely made up of Undecided voters who sided with No at the last minute.

The Moderate 55%

The majority of No voters are proud of their defence of the Union, and believe they have done their job well. The main task for them now is turning their attention away from the streets of Scotland to the halls of power in London, and pushing for Westminster to follow through with their promises for Scotland. (Click the link to sign a petition to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband) The Moderate 55% see further devolution or UK federalism as their future goal.

From New Statesman

The Diehard 55%

A minority of the 2,000,000 No voters are so delighted by the No vote that they have pledged their full support to Westminster and opposition to ‘the 45’ movement. They believe London knows best and that the most important thing now is to move out of referendum mode with no trace of ‘Yes Scotland’ or ‘the 45’ holding them back.

From The Scottish Sun

The Violent

Some people don’t care about politics and are simply using it as a platform for violence.

From The Daily Record

So that’s my broad analysis of the current situation.

Exciting and troubling times lie ahead for Scotland. ‘The 45’ movement is a particularly interesting result of the referendum, and worth watching. Will they overstretch themselves, as Bonnie Prince Charlie did, and see their campaign wither? Or will they push on further, becoming more active and loud, never letting Scotland forget how close it came to breaking away?

Scottish politics has entered a new era, and UK politics, in its own ponderous fashion, seems to be following suite.

All I can say is, it seems a great time to start a politics blog! 

How To Change The World In One Simple Step

[Expect mildly entertaining whiteboard picture soon!]

Your vote could change the world.

That is a scary thought – but an equally empowering one. The UK is one of the most conservative and assertive states on the world stage, and we in Scotland may be able to forever alter the very makeup of that state by simply putting a cross in a box.

Yes voter or No voter, we have the opportunity now to contribute to the most exciting political movement that has happened, certainly in my lifetime, on Scottish soil. The people will be able to speak.

So much has been written carefully, tweeted recklessly, uttered thoughtfully, bellowed drunkenly, and campaigned for passionately on both sides of the Scottish independence debate that it’s understandable to start feeling almost overwhelmed. But we shouldn’t be – we should be revelling in this.

This is what politics is meant to be. Exciting. Vibrant. Scary. All-encompassing and egalitarian. A channelling of conflicting and controversial views into some sort of consensus. The fact that this is not the norm, that British democracy is in fact not nearly as regularly accessible as we would be led to believe, is a troubling one.

I have found myself discussing and debating independence in arenas where politics would never normally enter. I've spouted numbers between mouthfuls at family dinners (And in my family the dinner table is never normally a place for weighty debates). While interrailing this summer, I found myself making my case to genuinely interested roommates at a cheap Budapest hostel. Deep observations on the future have been made with friends while watching the sunset from Edinburgh’s Salisbury Crags.

And all of it has been leading up to tomorrow, the 18^th of September 2014.

Here’s why I’ll be crossing the Yes box:

It’s Not Nationalism, it’s Democracy

Call it simplification if you want, but in my opinion local government is one of the basic, fundamental rules of democracy.

What real reasons are there for Scotland being ruled from the far south of an island of which we occupy the far north? The MPs living there don’t know what’s going on in the streets of Aberdeen. They don’t know the craic in the highland villages flowing down the Great Glen. The priorities of farmers in Stirlingshire certainly won’t seem immediate or of any national importance when London’s own issues and affairs are right there in front of them.

The desire to have your seat of government closer to home hardly seems like a nationalist slur to me.

It means, for the first time in centuries, the most important decisions for Scottish people will be being made not in that fancy old building on the TV, but in the fancy new building just a twenty-five minute walk from your front door (In my case, anyway).

It means that when MPs muck up, we can march to the parliament building and tell them so, not just post about it on facebook and mumble bitterly at BBC web pages.

It means that serious politics won’t just be that distant, inaccessible thing on the news. It’ll be right there, living and breathing on our own soil, where we can watch it and scrutinise it.

Westminster is old-fashioned, slow and flawed

The Westminster Model encourages division and conflict. On one side of the crowded, antiquated House of Commons sit the government, on the other sit the opposition. They take turns to stand and shout, spitting across the room into each others’ faces.

In Scotland’s devolved Holyrood parliament, and indeed in parliaments across mainland Europe, this form of politics is brutal and confrontational by comparison. Instead of two sharply contrasting sides facing up to one another, there instead sits a spectrum of colours and ideologies in a sweeping arc, with the dominant political force in the centre. Here, they are the focus of scrutiny and the axis the debate revolves around.

In Scotland, the electoral system is meant to produce coalition governments, a government with representation from multiple parties. This means that Labour and Conservative governments won’t be our only options – we might see a Green transport minister, a Lib Dem health minister, an SNP foreign minister, all under a Labour prime minister. The fact that we currently have an SNP majority is pretty amazing.

Meanwhile, in Westminster, it is (usually) one or the other. The electoral system (first past the post) means that the only times we get a coalition government (Like the current, ideologically baffling Con-Lib government) are when people are so divided and dissatisfied that they don’t know where to vote with conviction.

The Westminster Model is also ridiculously centralised and conservative. Devolution came slowly, unevenly, with a great deal of pressure forcing it through. Federalism (Far too radical and fair a notion for Westminster to advocate) is out of the question, unless the Lib Dems miraculously get into power. Meanwhile, outside of London, English people have little power of their own. Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs can vote on English education, transport, health etc., but not the other way around due to the lack of any English assembly or parliament.

Westminster rejects change and is horrified by reform. Instead of the fair federation it should have become long ago, the UK remains a centralised state with one house dedicated to confrontation, and the other (The House of Lords), which isn’t even democratically elected, dedicated to slowing down the system even further.

Scotland is a European nation

Scotland is currently treated as a single region by the EU, and as a result we, as a whole, elect 6 MEPs to the European parliament. After the May elections, we ended up with 2 SNP, 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, and 1 UKIP MEP. That sixth seat, so hotly contested, leaves a foul taste in my mouth.

As an independent state, we would have twice that many MEPs. Scotland is politically diverse and needs the representation to express that. For example, if Edinburgh’s vote had represented the whole of Scotland, the Green party would have had more votes than UKIP. But by lumping the whole country into one constituency, we ended with a far-right representative in Brussels instead.

Beyond the European parliament, Scotland has a lot more potential links with Europe it would be able to freely explore with independence.

As previously mentioned, the similarity of the Scottish parliament’s system to continental systems makes our governments and legislatures much more European in nature. With less media attention focussed on London, we may be able to learn more about and interact more with our neighbours across the water.

Some studies (Such as the Atlas of Productivity by the Jimmy Reid Foundation) have suggested that Scotland could potentially further embrace it’s currently overlookedNordic nature. It could take part in Northern European projects, with more ferries, links, and joint ventures between Scotland and Scandinavia. It could also be a more active player in the Nordic push for renewable energy, and the protection and development of the Arctic Circle.

Scotland could also punch above its weight in developing European Union institutions. The External Action Service, a sort of foreign office and peacekeeping force, is one example of an institution which is currently severely underfunded by large European states like the UK as they try to cling to false national sovereignty.

If Scotland were to contribute to EU peacekeeping instead of committing to the UK’s extensive and questionable foreign ventures, not to mention its outdated and dangerous nuclear deterrence policy, it could keep all of its soldiers in a job for a much smaller budget. It would provide jobs and give Scotland leverage in European foreign policy, and on an ethical level Scottish troops would find themselves providing peace and stability in dangerous places, not taking part in invasions and sowing discord.

If Scotland stays in the UK, it may be giving up its chance to become a truly European nation.

Instead, UKIP and the Eurosceptic factions in the Conservative party may drag us, and the rest of the UK, into isolation.

It’s a Globalised World

I don’t buy into all these clashing economic arguments being thrown at us. I think they've received too much attention, and that players on both sides have tried too hard to score points with the economy.

I believe (and a number of impartial economists seem to agree) that today’s economies are so globalised that it is international forces, not purely internal decisions, which will determine the health of a currency. Ten years from now, Scotland’s economy is unlikely to be affected by whether 2014 saw a Yes or a No vote. The economy, if managed sensibly, will slot into the international system (And I have plenty of issues with that system, trust me, but that’s a debate for another time) and it will be resource management, not politics, which determines the country’s prosperity.

I also believe that sterling is an international currency. The UK parliament will have hardly any more control than the Scottish parliament over private and independent institutions like the Bank of England.

It makes me sad that some people have turned this debate into a counting game when there is so much more at stake.

Cultural Boom

A common theme in modern Scottish writing, from Robert Louis Stevenson to Janice Galloway, is a little something my English teacher taught me a few years back called ‘Caledonian Antisyzegy’.

Yes, it is a word.

And what it describes is the attitude of defeat, of insignificance, and of dual personality which has pervaded Scottish art for a long time. Look at the split personality in Doctor Jekyll and Mr Hyde, for example, or the melancholy in Neil Munro’s historic novels John Splendid and The New Road.

Could a Yes vote bring about a new resurgence in Scottish art? I think it could – just look at how much has been written, presented on screen, performed on stage during Festival season, sang in the streets, in the run-up to the referendum. Just this week, a pro-Yes concert featuring Mogwai,Amy MacDonald and Franz Ferdinand took place in the Usher Hall. And the Scottish government-funded ‘James Plays’ at the Festival Theatre this summer, while not taking any sides, were an outstanding look into Scottish history and identity.onald and Franz Ferdinand took place in the Usher Hall. And tans, t

Indeed, it has been suggested that if the referendum were to take place purely among Scottish artists, writers, and musicians, the resultwould be an overwhelming Yes.

Britain needs radical reform

When Scotland votes for independence, the desire for autonomy in northern England, Wales and Northern Ireland may reach a level where Westminster will have no choice but to start respecting them more. Independence, they will realise, can happen on the modern-day British Isles, and if the UK wants to stay together as a state, it needs to reform politically.

That’s not to say that the British Isles, as a community rather than a state, will not stay together. After a Yes vote, the British Isles will consist of three separate but socially, financially and culturally interlinked states: the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, and Scotland.

It will be in everyone’s interest to maintain a healthy, happy relationship over our shared isles.

We can start looking at the bigger issues

Poverty at a local level, political representation at a national level, international peacekeeping and climate change at a European level. No Westminster bureaucracy in the way. Need I say more?

If I hear the term ‘Best of Both Worlds’ one more time…

Title says it all really.

Will the economy collapse under independence?

No.

Will the world shun Scotland after independence?

No.

Will a meteor hit an independent Scotland?

I hope not.

What does the UK stand for?

What is there to be proud of in the UK? You could claim that having four distinct nations working together is an achievement, but that would continue to happen, and probably happen more effectively, with independence. The UK just happens to be the framework we currently use to interact.

But regarding the UK as a national entity, what can we be proud in?

There was the Second World War, yes. The Blitz spirit which I’ve heard a lot of pro-No voters advocate. But what about now? Was the Iraq War a moment of national unity? The banking crisis? Was the royal wedding in 2011 really anything other than some glitzy pomp?

It was the case of Craig Murray, former British ambassador to Uzbekistan and current ‘English Scots for Yes’ campaigner, which really hammered home the lack of pride many of us have in the UK and its principles. When my flatmates and I watched this video, we were stunned into silence.

“When I first became a British ambassador, and first went out in my own flag car with the union jack flying on the front […] I had a lump in my front. It was a proud moment for me. It was only six months after that I discovered that in the country where I was ambassador, we and the Americans were shipping people in order for them to be tortured. And some of them were tortured to death. As you may imagine, my worldview changed.”

The UK’s role in the world needs to change. That’s unlikely to happen any time soon. Scottish independence, perhaps, may act as an eye-opener.

Something amazing is happening

People are campaigning on every street corner in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and beyond. ‘Yes’ and ‘No Thanks’ signs are emblazoned in windows across the nation, polls shout confused messages of 50-50 splits, and debates rage daily as we hurtle towards the only poll that really matters.

The fact that an 80% turnout rate is expected in unprecedented.

And the fact that the Yes side has made such immense gains, despite facing the full force of the British establishment, including a biased media and the intervention of business leaders with vested interests, is incredible.

History is going to be made tomorrow, whether the vote is a Yes or a No. And all of us will be a part of it.