Rise of the 45

In 1745, the Jacobite rebellion nearly succeeded in tearing Scotland out of the United Kingdom.

While the Jacobites’ main objectives were the restoration of the Stewart/Stuart monarchy (In the form of the dashing Bonnie Prince Charlie) and the reestablishment of Catholicism as the dominant faith, one of their other defining aims was ‘Prosperity For Scotland, And No Union’. The 1707 Act of Union with England and its empire had delivered none of its promises, and rebellion was the result.

After securing the support of many Highland clans, Bonnie Prince Charlie and his lieutenants surged south. They took Edinburgh, establishing a loose grip on Scotland, and surged into England looking to consolidate their gains.

They failed.

Two hundred and sixty-nine years later, Scotland held its referendum on independence.

The campaigns were fierce yet peaceful, the outcome was by no means secure as the SNP and Greens gathered support in all corners of the nation. Turnout was a historic and unprecedented 85%. On Referendum Night, the 18^th September 2014, immense numbers of Scots crowded around TV sets, squeezed into heaving pubs, roamed the streets draped in saltires or union flags, and awaited the result. The vote concluded: 55% No, 45% Yes.

Despair and disillusionment on the Yes side was prominent the next day. An oppressive fog enveloped Edinburgh, and a tense stand-off took place in Glasgow’s George Square. Alarming political news seeped out of the media: Alex Salmond resigned as first minister; UK party leaders (Mainly Ed Miliband) cast doubt over their pledges for further devolution; a Tory rebellion gave voice to anti-devolution MPs in Westminster determined to challenge decentralization. Out of this instability emerged a group called ‘We Are The 45%’, later simply dubbing themselves ‘The 45’. They have gathered a massive social media following and pledged to carry on the fight for independence.

Will they fail as well?

Thankfully, the historical comparisons between Bonnie Prince Charlie’s ‘45’ and Facebook’s ‘45’ are fairly weak, but the coincidental titling certainly caught my eye, and made me question where the new ‘45’ movement was heading.

I must admit, on post-referendum day I was feeling pretty awful – surprisingly so. The incredible buzz on the streets of Edinburgh the previous day had abruptly died, and suddenly over 1,600,000 Scots had plunged from a political high to devastating low. When I saw ‘We Are The 45%’ pop up on Facebook, I immediately pressed ‘like’.

It seemed like a sign of solidarity, a reassuring symbol that Scotland’s newly politicized population would not fizzle away.

Now, after a few of days of painful thought, I cannot help but feel concerned at the direction ‘The 45’ are taking. It seems that they are struggling to move on and accept the vote, and that makes me and many other Yes voters coming to terms with the No vote quite uncomfortable.

In his recent article, BBC correspondent Allan Little claimed that two Scotlands hademerged. At first, that was true, but now the situation is more complicated. There appear to be a number of different mindsets emerging as the referendum result soaks in:

The Diehard 45%

This branch will not let the idea of independence die. They have seized upon Alex Salmond’s suggestion that Scotland might not need another referendum if Yes support and No disillusionment continue to grow. They have replaced their bright blue ‘Yes’ twibbons and window signs with dark purple ‘45’ ones instead, and have planned future rallies. For them, the Yes campaign continues.

From The Independent

The Moderate 45%

This branch are still feeling the No result. It hurts to think about, and they will continue to be proud of their support for Yes Scotland, but they have accepted the referendum result and are willing to move on. Their sympathies lie with ‘The 45’, and they will display some support for the movement, but they believe that the only realistic routes now lie in devo-max or a distant future referendum.

From The Independent

The Reconciliators

This branch have abandoned their previous allegiance, whether to Yes or No, for the good of Scotland in the UK. They have acknowledged the democratic will of the people and believe that only a united, undivided Scotland can have a prosperous future. We need to move on from the referendum, they say, and embrace the new Scotland which has emerged from it without division. They broadly support devo-max or UK-wide federalism.

From The Daily Record

The Green Movement

The timing of the referendum was almost perfect for Green Yes supporters, what with the world-wide People’s Climate March (Including Edinburgh's contribution) taking place just three days after the vote. This allowed the political energy generated by the referendum to be channelled into something positive, and the Greens are building upon this momentum to push for greater activism and visibility in Scottish politics. Their attitude is generally Reconciliatory, or Moderate 45%. Since the referendum, membership of the Scottish Green Party has exploded (relative to previous years, and alongside the SNP and SSP). They will push for Scottish devo-max or UK federalism, with some members hoping another referendum is on the horizon.

The Regretful 55%

Some No voters viewed the mixed messages coming out of Westminster regarding devo-plus, devo-max and federalism, with great alarm, and started to regret crossing the No box. They are frightened by Nigel Farage’s talk that he’s sick of “TheScottish tail wagging the English dog” and by media attention shifting from Scotland to regional England. The Regretful 55% appear to be largely made up of Undecided voters who sided with No at the last minute.

The Moderate 55%

The majority of No voters are proud of their defence of the Union, and believe they have done their job well. The main task for them now is turning their attention away from the streets of Scotland to the halls of power in London, and pushing for Westminster to follow through with their promises for Scotland. (Click the link to sign a petition to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband) The Moderate 55% see further devolution or UK federalism as their future goal.

From New Statesman

The Diehard 55%

A minority of the 2,000,000 No voters are so delighted by the No vote that they have pledged their full support to Westminster and opposition to ‘the 45’ movement. They believe London knows best and that the most important thing now is to move out of referendum mode with no trace of ‘Yes Scotland’ or ‘the 45’ holding them back.

From The Scottish Sun

The Violent

Some people don’t care about politics and are simply using it as a platform for violence.

From The Daily Record

So that’s my broad analysis of the current situation.

Exciting and troubling times lie ahead for Scotland. ‘The 45’ movement is a particularly interesting result of the referendum, and worth watching. Will they overstretch themselves, as Bonnie Prince Charlie did, and see their campaign wither? Or will they push on further, becoming more active and loud, never letting Scotland forget how close it came to breaking away?

Scottish politics has entered a new era, and UK politics, in its own ponderous fashion, seems to be following suite.

All I can say is, it seems a great time to start a politics blog!